Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 231.655617 282.882407 346.749567 433.732053 551.531640 7.092317e+02 9.430167e+02
2025-06-22 171.973673 229.639709 311.003698 439.085154 645.664509 9.862221e+02 1.642008e+03
2025-06-29 141.468352 201.152029 293.243780 455.223699 756.744367 1.355379e+03 2.853726e+03
2025-07-06 118.142567 175.591238 270.133898 450.897497 827.974420 1.705600e+03 4.528166e+03
2025-07-13 108.701544 168.922656 274.796943 496.045545 1020.433593 2.499105e+03 9.207040e+03
2025-07-20 100.501599 162.166210 276.910829 536.474518 1230.077263 3.608401e+03 1.989793e+04
2025-07-27 92.774035 154.483578 274.988149 567.228520 1439.449025 5.076802e+03 4.613568e+04
2025-08-03 85.269935 145.717055 268.607950 584.988751 1627.761819 6.888659e+03 1.163547e+05
2025-08-10 78.039403 136.203168 258.436005 589.375044 1779.216864 8.968446e+03 3.294581e+05
2025-08-17 70.789007 125.528593 243.501640 575.627729 1855.917255 1.088880e+04 1.001623e+06
2025-08-24 64.443429 115.830681 228.994841 558.591351 1910.832009 1.296932e+04 4.322303e+06
2025-08-31 58.939805 107.190655 215.473825 540.506749 1951.826446 1.526339e+04 4.599158e+07
2025-09-07 57.805536 107.909511 225.219633 602.548455 2478.376799 2.831768e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 54.131401 102.587330 218.882449 608.736923 2718.316327 4.082149e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 51.570549 99.417039 217.539161 633.027269 3124.119623 6.844307e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 48.165971 93.882616 208.838942 626.264730 3311.380133 9.755781e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.539368 94.745155 217.970603 696.038472 4280.662835 2.782174e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 46.572649 94.654376 224.420057 759.309669 5416.509707 1.036702e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 45.197126 93.372524 227.095958 807.914341 6607.371555 5.931692e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 43.433462 90.894054 225.612673 836.164226 7690.890958 8.735019e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 41.381943 87.445181 220.429943 843.161203 8525.350059 1.909073e+13 NaN
2025-11-09 38.972059 82.823199 210.691835 821.257701 8802.806274 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 36.680635 78.309107 200.671788 794.222466 8933.469387 NaN NaN